FIRST ICELAND, THEN IRELAND AND THIRD…AUSTRIA?

This isn’t important, but its interesting that Ireland is now along with Iceland the fucked countries to compare the rest of the world with. All that’s up for debate now is who is the third most fucked country in the recession. It doesn’t even need saying that that Ireland follows Iceland as the second most fucked. Paul Krugman writes:

Austria’s not as outrageously leveraged as Iceland, or even Ireland. But it may need a bank bailout that will seriously strain the country’s resources. So what I said at the event — that after those two, it’s probably the advanced country at most risk from the financial crisis — shouldn’t even be controversial.

 

BRITISH JOBS AND IMMIGRATION


BRITISH JOBS AND IMMIGRATION

So on the strike wave in Britain…. The slogan ‘British Jobs for British Workers’ has been raised.

But as the flag says the extent of this nationalism is no further to the right than the jingoism of that is expected from Gordon Brown or anyone.

And the extent of this nationalism is hard to measure. The British state and its media is deliberately excentuating the nationalism of the strikers in what would seem to be an attempt to portray them as the dangerous mob, the fascist horde.

One shocking example taken from vimeo.

Quotes from News At Ten and Newsnight (half an hour later), Feb 2 2009. The striker’s quote is edited in the News At Ten segment in a way that makes it seem he does not want to work alongside foreigners, in the context of a ministerial claim of xenophobia. In the fuller Newsnight report, it is clear that he is saying that he _cannot_ work alongside them, because they are segregated.

The same man appears in the Six O’Clock News the same day, but the edited quote is not in that bulletin.

BBC Strike News Selective Quoting from fridgemagnet on Vimeo.

Also some of the demands have been quite internationalist. The demands coming out of a mass meeting of strikers at the Linsey Oil Refinery were

* No victimisation of workers taking solidarity action. * All workers in UK to be covered by NAECI Agreement. * Union controlled registering of unemployed and locally skilled union members, with nominating rights as work becomes available. * Government and employer investment in proper training / apprenticeships for new generation of construction workers – fight for a future for young people. * All Immigrant labour to be unionised. * Trade Union assistance for immigrant workers – including interpreters – and access to Trade Union advice – to promote active integrated Trade Union Members. * Build links with construction trade unions on the continent.

However, there is no way around the fact that there has been a continous nationalist dimension to these strikes. Even the seemingly progressive demands of the Lindset strike may hide a more sinister nationalism. What exactly does ‘locally skilled union members’ mean?

One thing that the left needs to sort out is its understanding of the economic significance of immigration. We need to be able to give honest answers about what immigration means.

A good place to start for this is to have a look at a very easy to read article by George Borjas, perhaps the worlds leading labour economist and almost certainly the world leader on the economic significance of immigration. Anyway the article is here and is well worth a look to catch up on the state of knowledge in the field.

A NEW ISSUE OF THE COMMONER IS OUT!

There were 12 good issues of The Commoner earlier this century and then it disappeared for over two years. And now it’s back with an issue on the Energy Crisis. It’s available here Going with it is an ‘editor’s blog’, where the ‘editor’ makes this observation:

This sumarises Obama’s world view: “We’ll provide new computers, new technology, and new training for teachers so that students in Chicago and Boston can compete with kids in Beijing for the high-tech, high-wage jobs of the future.”

Okay, perhaps I’m a bit obsessed by the Obama phenomenon. But, meh, I am interested by it. A friend on facebook recently said that she “welcomes President Obama, but urges you to remember one thing about the will of the people – it wasn’t long ago that the world was swept away by the Macarena.”

CHINA GETTING HIT BY THE RECESSION

Back in July I noted

the global downturn is hitting advanced economies much harder than the rest of the world 

While that was true then, it is less so now. There is an interesting article on the FT from a few days ago on how the recession has spread to China.

The post-1997 global balance is breaking down, and the world is lurching drunkenly to find a stable new balance. Until now, Chinese overproduction has balanced US overconsumption, leading to China’s massive trade surplus and capital account deficit. Inevitably, however, a reduction in US overconsumption, a necessary consequence of the financial crisis, must force a corresponding reduction in overproduction elsewhere, and China, like it or not, will have to bear the brunt of the adjustment. The US and Europe must design their fiscal and monetary policies in part to ease China’s adjustment, which will otherwise be extremely difficult.

It’s continued over here

As Kevin O’Rourke, the same, points out over on the Irish Economy Blog Ireland being a small open economy heavily dependent on foreign demand for our exports, China’s problem’s are not a world away from our own.

CHRISTINA ROMER – CHAIR OF CEA

Obama has said Christina Romer is going to be Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors to the President. Interestingly, this now means that the world leading expert on the Great Depression, Ben Bernanke, is heading the Fed, while the world’s second foremost scholar on the Great Depression is Chair of the CEA.

As people will know, Romer and Berstein have drawn up ‘the Obama plan’. She describes some of her thinking on it in this video. Its very untechnical so have a look-see.

KEYNES’S QUOTES

There has been a bit of a resurgence in interest in Mr Keyne’s recently. There was a brief article in Time a few weekd back on this. I liked the quote from Robert Lucas, perhaps the most important economist since Keynes and certainly NOT a Keynesian: “I guess everyone is a Keynesian in a foxhole”.

Also interesting was that it cleared up what I’d heard before but wasn’t sure about. It was Miton Friedman, the reason there is a ‘perhaps’ in the above sentence, who said ‘We are all Keynesians now’ not Nixon.

…A few pages later came the now famous quote from economist Milton Friedman: “We are all Keynesians now.” Friedman later objected that it was taken out of context–all he meant was that everybody used Keynesian language and concepts. But the phrase stuck. It’s often attributed these days to Republican President Richard Nixon, but what Nixon actually said, in 1971, was the less expansive “I am now a Keynesian.” …

IMPACT OF OBAMA

Its possible that the crisis in the financial markets is over. The bailout had a large effect. But obviously things are still rocky and another wave of panic could come very easily. My prediction is and has been for the last few weeks that what happens next depends on Obama. He took a very pro-worker line in the election and has commited himself to universal health care, reforming enviromental policy, the introduction of The Employee Free Choice Act, cutting taxes on the working class and increasing them on earners of over $250,000 and talked about increasing Capital Gains Tax. If he does all these things, or if the market comes to believe that he will fulfill some or most of his election promises there will be a panic and the financial markets will go into chaos, again. So far Obama’s major decicions the TEAB he’s announced, and his chief of staff are both ‘safe’ choices. But it is clear that the markets did not react happily to his election. In the two days following his election the stock market, as measured by the Dow Wilshire 5000 Index, lost $1.2 trillion in the two days following the election.

Terry Savage on The Street writes:

The stock market is always right. Nonetheless, I must admit to being more than a little annoyed that the stock market greeted the election results with a two-day nosedive, the worst two-day decline since the crash of 1987. Even Friday’s 250-point gain was little solace.

 

It smacked of Wall Street pique that the next president appears to be no friend of “the Street.” But the economic platform of our new president came as no surprise, so why the selloff?Yes, he promised to tax capital gains at the same rate as ordinary income, which would represent a huge hit to those who still have any capital gains remaining. But the smart money had already priced that fact into the stock market, selling earlier in the campaign as the candidate’s momentum picked up.

Certainly, President Obama will take a more populist approach to digging America out of its economic mess. But realistically, how much more could Wall Street have expected in the way of aid from the government? More than a trillion dollars has already been injected directly into the banking system by way of guarantees and capital stock purchases.

ENDNOTES

On the below linked blog there is an article by the new Brighton based group ‘Endnotes’.The breakdown of a relationship? Reflections on the crisis

In it they say nothing that particularly new. But do use a rather strange flip flopping between the real economy and productive capital.

This relation between finance and productive capital, or between finance and the real economy,while it has always existed in some form in the capitalist mode of production, has not remained unaltered. Since the global crisis of profitability of capital, or looked at another way since the crisis in the capitalist class relation in the late 60s and early 70s (marked by a wave of class struggle, industrial and social unrest), financialisation has been an integral element of the capitalist restructuring and counter-offensive – i.e. of the global restructuring of the relation between capital and proletariat.

The real economy is basically the economy with out inflation. So to look at real economic growth you’d look at nominal economic growth and multiply it by some deflator. However, productive capital, a marxist term, refers to capital that is productive of surplus value. Its a phrase that has caused huge problems for marxist theory, see The power of Women and the Subversion of the Community for one interesting if flawed engagement in that debate. It has also caused a major problem with the emergence of physicalism on the left and the festishisation of manufacturing or more gernerally ‘material labour’.

However later Endnotes go on to say:

The present financial crisis has its roots partly in the subprime loans and mortgages which were predicated on the continual upward trend of the housing market, and the inflation of asset prices (after the collapse of the previous asset bubble – the dot.com boom), with vast amounts of fictitious capital being generated by the leveraging practised by financial institutions (banks, investment funds, private equity funds etc). The finance-led boom ultimately outran the ability of the real economy – i.e. productive capital – to extract surplus value through the exploitation of workers in production(whether this production is ‘material’ or ‘immaterial’). As a consequence we are witnessing a massive ‘correction’ – the falling stock markets, housing market – in Marxian terms the devalorisation of capital (expressed in write-downs, defaults, bankruptcies, mergers and fire-sales of financial institutions, and now their part-nationalisation by capitalist states across the board).

I’ve highlighted the curious bit. They seem to be aware that production and exploitation, i.e. the extration of surplus labour, is not cofined to ‘material’ production. Significantly what this means for the article is that ‘immaterial’ labour such as accounting and finance would be included in the category of ‘productive capital’.  (They are ALWAYS included in the category of ‘the real economy’.)

This reduces what they are saying and brings it out of discussions of ‘productive’ versus ‘unproductive’ capital and into a rather standard statement that the cause of the crisis was the over-expansion of the financial sector of the economy. An over expansion that cannot be dealt with in the standard way of letting the business cycle take its course because as we saw with the collapse of Lehmans’, banks can’t go broke or it’lll only exacerbate the crisis.

Its irratating that revolutionary analysis of the crisis is so often clouded in the arcane lexicon of marxism, where it is often difficult to work out what people are actually saying. And this is another example of it.

In tems of difficult marxism, I have to promote Endnotes first publication: Endnotes no.1

It compiles the debate between Troploin (Gilles Dauve and Karl Nesic) and Theorie Communiste (Roland Simon) in France. It is well worth getting a copy of. Its kind of heavy going, but so is most lefty stuff, and this stuff is actually saying something new and challenging. Anywat I might blog about it a bit more in the forthcoming weeks.

US UNEMPLOYMENT HITS 14 YEAR HIGH

News out this morning, no wait make that yesterday morning. The U.S. labor market has collapsed in the past three months, shedding 651,000 jobs and driving the unemployment rate to its highest point in more than 14 years.

It has been confirmed that in the month of October alone, non-farm payrolls fell by  240,000, while in September it fell by 284,000. That’s over half a million fewer workers working in the space of two months.

In the past six months unemployment has climbed by 2.45 million, the highest increase since 1975.

US unemployment is now at 6.5% with 10.1 million workers looking for work.

Full report is here 

OBAMA ANNOUNCES CHIEF OF STAFF

Ok this is number two of what will probably be many posts on the Obamarama. I’m blogging now that I have internet. I said I would.

Obama’s first political act since getting elected was the appointment ofRahm Emanuel as Chief of Staff. Rahm Emanuel is a prominent member of the Democratic Leadership Council

What’s that? It a right wing pressure group within the Democrat part that advocates the Democrats should shift further to the right and abandon populism.

So Obama the populist gets elected and the first thing he does…abandon populism.

It all seems soooooooooooooo familiar.